Certainly one of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will probably attain the benchmark of 270 electoral votes wanted to develop into the forty seventh president quickly after the final votes are solid Nov. 5.
Nevertheless, it’s statistically doable that neither candidate will hit that magic quantity.
There are two methods such an final result might unfold: Both Trump and Harris every obtain 269 electoral votes, or so-called “faithless electors” solid their poll for different candidates.
Here’s a rundown of what would occur:
twelfth Modification
The electors from every state will meet on Dec. 17 to formalize the Electoral School outcome.
Solely 30 states and the District of Columbia require that electors both vote for the candidate that gained their jurisdiction or the candidate nominated by one of many two main events.
In 2016, seven electors in Hawaii, Texas and Washington state voted for somebody aside from Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Subsequently, whereas Trump gained states that had been value 306 electoral votes and Clinton gained states value 232, the ultimate Electoral School outcome was Trump 304, Clinton 227.
The 119th Congress will meet in joint session Jan. 6, 2025, to rely the electoral votes. If neither candidate is confirmed to have obtained 270, the Home will elect the president.
Every state’s Home delegation receives one vote, with a majority (26) wanted to select a winner. Presently, Republicans have the bulk in 26 delegations, whereas Democrats have the sting in 22 delegations and two states (Minnesota and North Carolina) evenly break up — although that quantity is more likely to change after the American individuals have their say.
Comply with together with The Submit’s protection of the 2024 election
As of Friday, the web site 270ToWin has a median forecast of 28 states with a majority GOP Home delegation in 2025 and Democrats with the bulk in simply 19 state delegations.
The Senate course of for electing the vice chairman is easier, with a easy majority wanted. Simply two-thirds of the chamber’s members (67 senators) have to vote to make it an official tally — so in idea, somebody might be elevated to a heartbeat from the presidency with the assist of simply 34 senators.
What if Congress can’t resolve?
In brief, they must resolve.
If the Home fails to select a president on the primary poll, then they need to maintain going till the tie is damaged.
If neither Harris nor Trump may have been picked by the point the forty seventh president’s time period begins (midday on Jan. 20, 2025), the vice president-elect, chosen by the Senate, will stand in till a commander-in-chief is chosen.
If neither chamber is ready to attain a majority in time of Inauguration Day, the speaker of the Home would function president — however solely till both a vice chairman or president is elected — per the Presidential Succession Act of 1947.
The chances
The possibilities of no candidate reaching 270 electoral votes could be very low.
On the polling web site FiveThirtyEight, the result “no winner” occurred simply 3 times throughout 1,000 simulations as of Friday.
The Home of Representatives has chosen a president simply twice, in 1800 and 1824.